节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
近期地缘政治风险常态化致使全球避险情绪持续发酵，贵金属板块反弹带动风险偏好回升，有色金属板块同步走高。其中，沪铜受有色工业协会强调加强铜战略储备消息提振显著拉涨，沪铝跟随反弹，主力合约收盘上涨1.85%。从基本面观察，假期临近导致需求表现疲软，社会库存持续累积，短期基本面承压；但中长期供需偏强预期未发生改变。
铝品种基本面未出现显著变化。前期铝价连续上行后，市场对高价的消化能力相对有限，下游加工品厂商普遍采取观望策略，补库意愿明显受抑制。当前处于季节性消费淡季，叠加春节Ł..削弱了对铝锭的边际采购需求。需求端趋弱背景下，铝锭社会库存持续累积，对铝价形成阶段性压力。
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