节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
电解铝方面，1月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什出任下一任美联储主席，其鹰派倾向使市场普遍预期收紧货币政策，美指迅速抬升。沪铝周内持仓冲高至81万手后回落至74万手，政策预期主导市场情绪。
基本面供应端，国内及印尼新增电解铝项目持续爬产，供应端呈缓增态势，铝水比例下降。消费端铝价物理性大涨，叠加下游春节效应，铝加工开工率大幅下滑1.5%至59.4%，生产活动季节性放缓。
库存数据显示，铝锭库存周度增加3.9万吨至78.2万吨，铝棒库存增至24.35万吨（环比增2.15万吨），去库压力显现。贵金属价格短期断崖下跌引发市场紧张情绪，传导至金属板块，叠加..
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