节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
周二沪铜主力低位反弹，伦铜一度反弹至13500美金一线，国内近月交割结构收窄。周二电解铜现货市场成交好转，下游节前适度补库，内贸铜贴水120元/吨，昨日LME库存升至17.6万吨，COMEX库存继续上行至58.2万吨。宏观层面，主要经济体对全球关键矿产和资源的博弈进一步深化，鸽派官员呼吁美联储今年应大幅降息，当前美国经济未出现强劲价格压力，而里士满联储主席强调控通胀仍是核心目标，美国经济前景风险犹存，就业增长集中于少数行业，AI基建投入与消费者支出为经济提供韧性，但通胀率仍高于长期目标，美联储内部分歧在加剧。美国政府短暂停摆后恢复重启，特朗普签署拨款协议与民主党达成一致，当前美伊冲突频发...
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