节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：9/10


铝
宏观方面，关注即将发布的美国宏观经济数据；地缘方面，美伊局势稍有缓和，战争风险下滑但不确定性仍存。产业端国内电解铝运行产能大稳小增，空间有限。需求端铝价工业周度开工率环比微幅下滑，临近假期。沪铝最新社库85.3万吨，较上周累库5.3万吨，周内累库2.4万吨，社库超80万吨，同比偏高，假期临近库存累库速度加快。现货方面价格随盘回落，贴水收敛，节前拿货情绪稍有改善。综合来看市场抛压缓和，短期关注价格下方支撑。

沪铝周中两次下探23000附近并反弹，整体减仓下行，持仓量回落至12月份水平，情绪抛压或已结束。逻辑上前期看多逻辑未发生根本性扭转，短期更多是情绪调整，从中性观望转向，中长期看涨未变，建议择机入场中长期多单，继续关注23000附近支撑。

铜
当前铜价锚定两个逻辑，黄金高位运行支撑维持，美国虹吸逻辑弱化，金铜比支撑铜价在10万附近运行。但C-L价差逆转，COMEX铜远月高升水...

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