节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：中性参考度：2/10
海外机构预测，2026年乌克兰铁矿石出口量或同比下滑5%至2900万吨，对应减量约150万吨。该预测锚定中国铁矿石价格预计下行7%的基准情景，且仅纳入市场层面因素（未考虑军事风险等可能显著扰动局势的变量）。
核心挑战：对华市场竞争力弱化与成本端压力高企
乌克兰对华铁矿石出口竞争力持续弱化是核心矛盾，2026年对华出口预计下滑15%-20%。驱动因素包括：几内亚西芒杜项目投产将释放2000万吨优质铁矿石增量供应，进一步挤压乌矿在华市场份额；全球主要铁矿石出口国对华运输成本具备显著优势，乌克兰物流成本与头部出口国差距悬殊，性价比劣势突出。电力短缺构成另一重严峻挑战。2023年11月乌克兰电价攀升至140欧元/兆瓦时，较波兰同期水平 ..
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