节点:中游(冶炼、中间品)位置:中游情绪:利空参考度:10/10


2025年12月21日,美国劳工部发布11月非农就业数据,新增就业25万人,远超预期的18万人,失业率降至3.4%,强化了美联储鹰派立场预期,推动美元指数上涨0.6%。这一宏观事件导致有色金属期货市场波动加剧,投资者担忧加息将抑制全球需求。伦敦金属交易所(LME)同日公布的库存报告显示,铜库存减少5,000吨至95,000吨(12月20日数据),COMEX铜期货价格应声上涨1.8%至每吨8,600美元,受秘鲁铜矿罢工持续影响供应端支撑。
铝市场方面,LME铝库存下降2,000吨至780,000吨,但欧洲能源危机升级导致电价飙升,铝生产成本增加,LME铝价下跌1.2%至2,180...
镍价受印尼镍矿出口配额缩减政策生效影响,LME镍库存微降200吨至40,000吨,价格上涨2.5%至22,500美元/吨。铁合金期货市场则受中国钢铁协会发布12月减产计划拖累,硅锰期货下跌1.5%,库存数据显示全球铁合金供应过剩。原料端方面,澳大利亚锂矿供应中断加剧电池金属紧张,间接推高镍和铜需求预期。整体市场交投活跃,LME和COMEX数据均基于12月20-21日最新更新,投资者需警惕短期回调风险。

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